[SMM Analysis] Analysis and Trend Outlook of China's Refined Tin Industry in May 2025

Operational Analysis and Trend Outlook of China's Refined Tin Industry in May 2025

According to SMM processed data based on market survey, in May 2025, China's refined tin production declined by 2.37% MoM and 11.24% YoY. The sustained tightening of the tin concentrates and scrap tin supply chains imposed rigid constraints on capacity, leading to a slight decline in the overall operating rate.

Yunnan Production Region: Interplay of Raw Material Shortages and Cost Pressures

Imports of tin ore from Myanmar have remained below the 5,000 mt warning line for several consecutive months. Additionally, although the Bisie tin mine in the DRC resumed production in April, the first batch of ore requires a 4-6 week transportation period and is expected to enter the smelting process only in June-July. Thus, the raw material shortage is unlikely to be alleviated in the short term. The TCs for 40% grade tin concentrates in Yunnan remained at historically low levels, further squeezing smelting profits. Some enterprises entered seasonal maintenance or cut production due to insufficient raw materials.

As of May 28, raw material inventories at Yunnan smelters were generally below 30 days. Some enterprises faced inventory backlogs due to high-priced stockpiling earlier, but weak downstream demand made it difficult to sell, resulting in sluggish transactions at spot premium quotes.

Jiangxi Production Region: Increasing Pressure on the Scrap Recycling System and Escalating Risks of Capacity Exit

Jiangxi relies on the scrap tin recycling system, but recycling volumes have only reached 70% of the annual average since the Chinese New Year, with electronic scrap supplies declining by 30% MoM. Policy uncertainty (e.g., regarding renewable resource policies) and trade frictions have hindered the circulation of scrap materials, with some suppliers hoarding materials in anticipation of price increases, driving up the smelting costs of recycled tin. The decline in TCs, coupled with insufficient scrap materials, has led to a 15%-20% YoY increase in production costs for Jiangxi smelters, with some capacity potentially exiting permanently.

Other Production Regions and Overall Supply-Demand Pattern

Regions such as Inner Mongolia and Anhui: In Inner Mongolia, production slightly rebounded in May due to production issues at captive mines, but it has not yet returned to previous levels. Production regions such as Anhui continue to experience operating rates below expectations due to shortages of scrap materials and tin concentrates.

Based on SMM estimates, refined tin production is expected to decline by 4.58% MoM in June. Driving factors: Some smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi plan to halt production for maintenance.